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FOS Staffer Rob Riva substitutes for Mark this week.
Nrav Dalal: Well, I guess Mark felt that since the Special Teams took a vacation last week that he could take one this week. So, Rob, thanks for filling in as we breakdown this week’s matchup
against Michigan State. PSU needs to win in East Lansing to keep its BCS hopes alive. This is no easy task for the Lions. Michigan State has a ton of talent and the Lions have been sleep walking in
the first half for most of this season.
Rob Riva: Thanks Nirav. I’m just keeping Mark’s seat warm. To say the Nittany Lions have looked unimpressive and uninspired the last two weeks would be an understatement. Ever since the Ohio State game, Penn State simply hasn’t looked sharp, and it should be a concern for Nittany Lions’ fans. Luckily, last week Penn State’s early funk happened against the lowly Indiana
Hoosiers and the Nittany Lions were able to extend their win streak against Indiana, but if that type of performance happens again this week against Michigan State, the Land Grant Trophy
will likely stay in East Lansing. However, the Nittany Lions can beat the Spartans as long as they don’t beat themselves. It will be interesting to see how Penn State responds this week.
Other Big Games This Weekend:
ND: I’m going to be watching the Wisconsin/Northwestern and Iowa/Minnesota games very closely. Wisconsin and Iowa are two teams that are also contending for the BCS At-large bid along with Penn State. Neither team has been to a BCS game in awhile and both fan bases will travel. The question will be which team wins on Saturday and which team intrigues the Bowl reps, who only want a great matchup and the most revenue.
RR: Ohio State’s match up with Michigan won’t be a contest, but it’s still one of the most historic rivalries in all of college football,
and for that reason will be worth watching. OK, so maybe it will also be worth watching if you enjoy watching the Wolverines get crushed. As a side note, could this be Tate Forcier’s last game as a Wolverine?
Upset Special:
ND: After starting out the season ranked among the elite, Ole Miss vanished. But, the play of Snead and the power of that team offensively is still there. I really like Ole Miss knocking off LSU this weekend. The game is in Mississippi and LSU is banged up. This could have implications for Penn State if the Lions are not able to win this weekend.
RR: The Pac 10 will have conference winner other than USC this year, and Oregon has put itself in a position to take the crown from the Trojans. However, I like Arizona at home with the upset
over Oregon.
Offense:
ND: Penn State’s offense appears to be a shell of the team that started out this season so strong. Moye has disappeared. The passing game has absolutely no rhythm and the offensive line has
struggled to open up gaping holes for Royster. This trend has to change this week.
Clark had another tough outing against Indiana but he did just enough to help the Lions win. What should be concerning is that Clark is not getting time to deliver the football and the WR have not been able to get down the field. The medium range routes have not been there for Penn State the last two weeks. In order for the passing attack to get back on track, the offensive line must provide Clark with far better protection and the receivers have to get off the line of scrimmage and then get separation. Easier said than done. Michigan State has not been very good against the pass but they are able to get pressure on the passer (19th in the nation in sacks) and, more importantly, they play Jeremy Ware right up at the line of scrimmage. Jerel Worthy has done very well as a redshirt freshman. At the defensive tackle position, he has been able to get pressure up the middle and disrupts offenses.
But, what he does is free up Greg Jones, who is likely to be the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, to attack the backfield. Jones has 7.5 sacks and 11 TFLs. The Lions have to account for
Jones. Look for the Lions to stay away from an empty backfield set so that either Suhey or Royster can help pick up the blitz.
I think this game could all come down to the running game. Michigan State is one of the better teams stopping the run. Again, much of this is because of the strength of their front seven. Jones gets a ton of publicity, rightfully so, but Eric Gordon is also very good. He has 79 tackles and does a very good job shedding blocks
and taking down the ball carrier. Royster needs to hit the hole hard and then weave his way through the bodies. I think the
Lions have to run the ball well between the tackles so that the
offensive line can get to the linebackers. These backers are fast
and they pursue well. The way to take that way is run right at
them and try to get them caught up in all the bodies.
The offensive play calling has been questionable at best and it will
need to improve significantly this week. The Lions tried to get a
little too cute down the stretch the last time they visited East
Lansing. They have to go back to being able to run the ball.
RR: The Spread HD has gone analog the past two weeks, and it
will be interesting to see what the offensive performance will be
on Saturday. Penn State has the horses to run the Spartans completely
off the field, but two questions remain: (1) will the coaching staff open up the offense and (2) will
the player execute? The Penn State offense
seems to have lost its identity, but the
Michigan State defense, with the exception
of Greg Jones, doesn’t strike the fear
into any offensive coach.
To be successful, Derek Moye, Graham Zug and freshman Curtis Drake need to
step up and play well. Moye has disappeared
the past two games, Zug has shown
the ability of a solid possession receiver,
and Drake made the most of his playing
time last week stepping in for an injured
Chaz Powell who looks to be out of commission
for Saturday’s game. Having success
through the air will open things up
for Evan Royster to run wild on the
Spartans’ defense.
Beyond all of that however, the Penn State
offensive line must be able to establish its
blocks, which has been an uncertain
proposition for five guys up front this
year. It seems as if the staff never really
got settled with the proper combination of
players on this year’s line, although the
line blocked better in the second half of
the Indiana game. If Clark doesn’t have
time to throw and the holes aren’t opening
up for Royster, it could be a very long day.
The bottom line is that there needs to be
consistency on Penn State’s offense. The
problem is that such consistency simply
hasn’t been there the last two weeks.
Defense:
ND: Speaking of the Spread HD, Tom
Bradley is essentially preparing for that
this week. The Spartans run a number of
formations and they move the ball using a
variety of methods. They will go with a 4-
wide set but they also like to line up in an
I-formation to pound the ball. Kevin Cousins is the best young QB in the
league. He has a cannon of an arm and he
is quite accurate. But, he has a tremendous
crop of wide receivers. It’s unbelievable
that no FBS school gave Blair White
any respect coming out of high school. He
now ranks 3rd in the conference in receiving
yards and 4th in receptions. White is a
fantastic route runner and it’ll be interesting
to see how the Lions combat his ability
because Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham
are both excellent WRs as well. The Lions
secondary have faced dip-n-dunk
Northwestern but this will be their toughest
task of the year will be slowing down
this passing attack. The key is going to be
getting pressure on Cousins. The Lions
have only tallied 2 sacks in the past two
games. Odrick has been getting double
teamed all year long but he has not been
able to fight through it the last few weeks.
Crawford hasn’t had a big game since the
Michigan game. Though Bowman has
been fantastic, the defensive front four
must have a great game in order to disrupt
Kevin Cousins.
The Spartans are using a running back by
committee approach. Even after Ashton Leggett rumbled for 110 yards against
Western Michigan, he only got 3 carries
against Purdue. Baker is the burner while
Leggett is the bowling ball. The Lions
defense should not have much trouble
stopping the Spartans running attack. Lee
has been playing lights out since returning
to full-time action. His presence has also
allowed Bowman to be far more aggressive.
And, lost in the shuffle is Josh Hull,
who has really played pretty well this season.
The Linebackers that everyone was
excited to see this year are finally healthy
enough to showcase that talent.
The Spartan offense will struggle the ball
running the ball. But, Coach D’Antonio is
going to use playaction to freeze the
Linebackers, which should allow Cousins
to pick apart the Penn State secondary.
The safety play has been very suspect as of
late and I think the Spartans are going to
have a field day throwing the ball.
RR: Up until the Ohio State game, you
could easily make the argument that this
Penn State defense was performing at a
level easily at the top of college football.
And while the defense remains at the top
of many defensive statistical categories,
the Penn State defensive players have
looked slow, sluggish and, at times, undisciplined
the past two weeks. Michigan
State’s offense can move the ball, particularly
through the air, so the entire Nittany
Lions’ defense will need to step up.
Keep in mind, the Spartans will move the
ball against Penn State, and they will do
so most likely through the air. There is no
denying that. Jack Crawford, Eric
Lattimore and Jerome Hayes will need to
get pressure on Kirk Cousins to make him
uncomfortable in the pocket. Otherwise,
Cousins will make Penn State pay.
Additionally, the Nittany Lions will need
to put Michigan State in bad starting field
position and force mistakes. The problem
with the field position battle is that pretty
much all facets of Penn State’s special
teams have been a complete and utter disgrace
to date.
Special Teams:
ND: What’s ironic about Penn State’s
issues on Special Teams is that Joe stated
early on that he did not want to use kids
like Justin Brown or Devon Smith because
he was concerned that they would have
problems handling the football. So, he has
turned to Zug, Astorino and Wallace, who
have all fumbled the football. But, what
should concern the Lions the most is trying
to contain Kewshawn Martin. He is
5th in the country in returning kicks with
an average over 31 yards. The loss of
Brandon Beachum is significant here. He
did a really good job on kick coverage.
Michigan State also has a fantastic kicker
in Brett Swenson. He is 18 of 20 on the
year and is 2 of 3 in kicks over 50 yards.
Meanwhile, Aaron Bates is punting the
ball very well. He’s averaging 42.1 yards
per punt and he has dropped 18 punts
within the 20 yard line.
The Spartans have a huge advantage on
special teams. The Lions must improve
rapidly or we could see another game
decided by the Special Teams battle.
RR: One word: disgrace. Stephfon Green
accelerates much better than Chaz Powell
does on kickoff returns, but the upfield
blocking, for whatever reason, hasn’t
worked all season. Graham Zug and Drew Astorino have shown excellent form in
their fair catch signals, and when they’ve
tried to make plays, they’ve coughed up
the ball. It’d be nice to see Joe Paterno
give Justin Brown or another youngster
with some speed to at least try to get some
yards off of punts. The kick-off coverage
hasn’t improved all year, and Michigan
State can make you pay with its kick-off
returns. Don’t be surprised if this game
comes down to a special teams play. If
that’s the case, the odds of that special
teams play benefiting Penn State aren’t
good.
Matchup to Kick Back and Enjoy:
ND: I think the outcome of this game is
going to be based on how well Penn State
is able to run the ball against Michigan
State. The Spartans are not great against
the Pass but they are pretty good against
the run yielding only 105.91 yards per
game. The front seven of Michigan State is
fantastic with Worthy clogging lanes and
Greg Jones attacking the ball. The Penn
State offensive line must move bodies and
Evan Royster has to run with, as Joe
Paterno has described it, more enthusiasm.
I’m interested to see how this
matchup plays out.
RR: The nod goes to the Penn State linebackers
versus Kirk Cousins for a couple
of reasons. First, if anyone is going to beat
Penn State straight up for Michigan State,
it is Cousins. Sean Lee, Josh Hull and
Navorro Bowman will likely need to attack
Cousins on various blitz packages if the
Penn State defensive ends continue to
struggle to get pressure on the quarterback
themselves. The Nittany Lions
defense cannot let Cousins get in a
rhythm, and the linebackers will be key in
disrupting that rhythm. The other reason
to watch this match up is that Lee and
Hull will be playing their last conference
game in their college career. The same
also may be said for Bowman.
Keys to the Game:
ND: Penn State has struggled against the
better defenses when they are backed up
against their goal line. For that reason, I
think field position is going to be really
key in this game. The team that is able to
make stops, get yards out of the return
game and get turnovers to flip the field
will be able to win this game. Whichever
team seems to be getting the ball consistently
within their own 20 will lose this
game.
RR: The keys to the game are simple. For
Penn State to win, they have to limit
turnovers on offense and utilize the superior
talent on offense to go after an outmanned
Spartans defense. Penn State’s
defense should be able to handle the
Michigan State offense, although Sparty
will be able to move the ball. But, without
a doubt, this game will come down to the
Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions
cannot sit in first or second gear all game
on offense, they need to step on the clutch
and kick it into high gear. Michigan State
can put points on the board, and quickly.
For that reason, Penn State can’t be content
with long drives ending in field goals.
Predictions:
ND: What has really baffled me is how
the offensive play calling has changed
since the Michigan game. I don’t believe
that they will get into the rhythm necessary
to beat the Spartans. The Spartans
are too strong in the passing game and
their Special Teams are the best in the
conference. That all spells disaster for
Penn State. PSU should start making
plans for the Outback Bowl.
Michigan State: 30 Penn State 24
RR: The inconsistency of Penn State the
last two games is particularly concerning,
even though the Spartans are a historically
inconsistent team. If the Nittany Lions
come out flat as they have the past two
weeks, Michigan State will come out victorious.
Michigan State: 24 Penn State: 13
Until next time,
Fight On State!
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